"Aleppo in Three Days": How Rebels Take Control of the Symbolic City of the Syrian War

The situation in Syria is once again at the forefront of world news, especially given the rapid rebel takeover of Aleppo and other key areas. The turn of events raises questions about the years-long struggle for the city and the enormous costs associated with propping up Bashar al-Assad's regime.

Aleppo: Symbol of War

Aleppo, Syria's largest city, has been the epicentre of fierce fighting since 2012, when part of it fell under opposition control.

The struggle for the city continued until December 2016, when government forces, supported by Russian airstrikes and Iranian militias, took full control of the eastern part of the city.

Thus, the war for Aleppo lasted about 4 years.

The Cost of Russia's Campaign in Syria

The exact figures for Russia's spending on the military campaign in Syria are not disclosed. However, according to open sources and analysts:

As of 2023, Russia could have spent between $50 billion and $80 billion on military operations, including operations in Aleppo, troop supplies, weapons supplies, and airstrikes.
In 2016, Russia spent about $4 million a day on the operation to capture Aleppo alone.

The collapse of years of effort

Current events highlight the vulnerability of the Assad regime, despite years of support from Russia and Iran. In a few days:

Aleppo is at risk of falling: rebels and Hayat Tahrir al-Sham militants have captured significant territories, including strategic roads and weapons depots.
Syrian military communications have been disrupted: there is information that explosions of radios and communication devices are complicating the coordination of the regular Syrian army.
Strikes on civilians: Russian air strikes, including on a gas station, have increased international condemnation.

Strategic importance

Aleppo is of key importance to both the Assad regime and the rebels:

Economic and logistical hub: The city provides control over major trade routes.
Political symbol: The loss of Aleppo would deal a serious blow to Assad's image as a leader in control of the country.

The conflict in Syria continues to provoke mass displacement and exacerbate the humanitarian crisis. The UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs' announcement that more than 14,000 people, including nearly 7,000 children, have been forced to flee their homes underscores the devastating impact of the renewed fighting.

Northwest Syria: Control and Holding

Colin Clark of the Soufan Centre notes that despite significant gains, the rebels are limited in their resources and capacity to administer the areas they have already captured. Their activities are focused on strengthening control over Idlib and Aleppo.

Clark also emphasizes that northwestern Syria remains the center of the confrontation, but expanding control to other regions will require significantly more forces and resources. This is not to be expected in the current conditions.

Despite years of fighting and huge financial investments, the situation in Syria remains unstable.

The successes of the rebels in Aleppo could become a harbinger of new serious changes in the region, calling into question the effectiveness and long-term sustainability of the strategies implemented by Russia and Iran in supporting the Assad regime.

We also posted Hossam Luka's biography.

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